Alright, I promise you this won’t be yet another post of me bitching and moaning about how much being under quarantine rules sucks. In normal times I could mix things up with scintillating stories of my bar life. Alas, those days are gone for the foreseeable future. Although I did have a nice evening (well, from 4-5:30 anyway) up on the rooftop with Jay and a few other friends. Other than walking, that’s pretty much the extent of what passes as my social life I’m afraid. So today I’m going to write about my hike.
But first, let me share this link: The Worldwide Lockdown May Be the Greatest Mistake in History. This article supports what I’ve been saying since day one. Yeah, the lockdown is an inconvenience for me but I’m mindful that it is much much more than that for many of my neighbors.
The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem “essential” has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is panic and hysteria, not the coronavirus, that created this catastrophe. And the consequences in much of the world will be more horrible than in America.The United Nations World Food Programme, or the WFP, states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. According to WFP director David Beasley on April 21: “We could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries. … There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself”
I’m trying to remain optimistic that the powers that be will see the light soon and let folks get on with their lives. Sadly, I’m not seeing many hopeful signs in that regard. These decisions are above my pay grade but it is astounding to see the people in charge turn a blind eye to the very real suffering of so many people here in the Philippines.
Just the other day I got yet another request from a gal I know for a “loan” to buy some food. I know that in Filipino a loan means a gift. I guess I was in a foul mood because I responded gruffly: Blow Me! She said, “okay.” Bada bing! Yeah, I joke but I did help a girl out with some cash for her needs and she took care of mine. A quid pro quo if ever there was one. I felt kinda bad about it as if maybe I’d taken advantage of the situation. But she’s been burning up my messenger ever since wanting to come see me again. Maybe that’s an old fashioned “win-win”.
Shit, I guess I broke my promise about not writing about the quarantine. Here’s the walking part of this post:
Going on two years here now and I’m still impressed by the resilience of the Filipinos I encounter, making the best of the harsh circumstances in which they live. I truly respect them more than I pity them.
It was a good day to get up off my lazy ass and make the best of the blessings I have been provided. Like an amazing sense of humor:
Thanks for dropping by!
A most excellent hike.
And I see that, slowly but surely, you’re becoming a Pragerite.
Also meant to say the pic of the “little old lady” (the caption of the pic I’m referring to actually has the words “little old lady,” so you know I’m not talking about the “matriarch” with the Oreos) was deeply evocative. You don’t happen to have a high-resolution version of that shot, do you? That image is, dare I say it, haunting—but more in the sense of resonance and ambient sadness, not in the sense of spookiness. Her face and her posture tell a story for sure. You just wanna give the old grandma a hug and not let go.
Another sleepless night. Did my version of a hike on my deck. Surprise saw my first bears this year in my back yard. Mom and a cub. Generally harmless but you never know.
Don’t feed the bears, but I do sometimes throw some old lettuce to bambi.
Some restaurants will open on the 17th. Probably includes bars and pubs.
Very little meat on grocery shelves.
Kev, Prager brings some much needed common sense perspectives to the dialogue, that’s for sure.
Jerry, Yeah, I’d be vary wary of a mother and her cub! I am glad to see Colorado moving forward with letting people get on with their lives. Interestingly, your governor is not taking the criticism from the media that the governor of Georgia has been getting. Wonder what the difference is? Oh wait, your guy has a (D) after his name. Never mind.
John, came across an interesting study from the rand corp. (which is a pretty well respected think tank) that modeled economic impact vs. various strengths of lockdown. Only for the US, but is fun to play with.
I believe that their key assumption used is that in the US, each life is worth approx. $10MM in a ripple effect through the economy. So, every increase in deaths due to loosening of any restrictions, results in a negative $10MM impact + a negative $X USD impact from additional sicknesses, etc.. However, keeping the lockdowns in place (depending upon severity), results in a negative $X USD impact.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA173-1/tool.html
For the most part, if I read the report correctly and their assumptions, economically in the long run, we are better off with the pain of the lockdowns (depending upon severity).
They broke the lockdowns into 5 different levels (1= no restrictions to 5= most stringent). Did not play with it enough to know exactly what the sweet spot is. I dont think we will ever know.
For the Philippines, the average economic impact of each life may be less than $10 MM, so that will most likely change where the sweet spot is for the PI.
Trying to figure out what to do with this virus is somewhat like trying to catch a knuckleball. You think it is going one direction and suddenly changes direction, sometimes for the better and sometime for the worse.
At the end of the day, probably those who are “pro lockdown” and those who are “anti lockdown” will both be right to some degree.
Keep strong and keep putting in those miles (or kms).
Thanks, Brian. Interesting perspectives. I’m not necessarily opposed to all aspects of the lockdown, just that some of them are ridiculous, have nothing to do with thwarting the virus, and may in fact be counterproductive. And of course, in a country like the Philippines with no real social safety net, actual people are actually starving. Killing them that way has the same economic impact as the virus I would assume.