It’s snowing this morning, which comes as somewhat of a surprise because yesterday was almost springlike (except the temp was in the 30’s), sunny, cloudless, and the air was crystal clear. Anyway, my cell phone rings at 0700 which was quite surprising since it almost never rings period. It was my boss saying roads were condition red and I could delay reporting until 1000. I was planning to walk in anyway, but it gave me the chance to do some blog reading this morning. I came across a couple of Korea-related posts that I thought interesting enough to share.

The first had to do with General LaPorte’s comments during Friday’s change of command ceremony. Although I have not experienced any overt anti-Americanism from any of the Korean people I’ve met, the current ruling party here has definitely shown signs of diminishing support of the alliance. This post from The Officer’s Club suggests an interesting way we might respond to the “leadership” of President Roh and the Uri party.

The idea of eventual Korean Re-unification has been floating in the ether for years now. The civilized world hopes that it will come after Kim-Jong-il dies/steps down/is overthrown, and the South peaceably absorbs the North like the German re-unification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The North Koreans hope it will come after they’ve leveled Seoul and rolled over the South. The American military stands in the way of the North, but the political pressure around our presence there is beginning to intensify:

LaPorte, the longest-serving commander of the U.S. Forces Korea with three years and nine months at the helm, always said the alliance was strong. But in his parting speech at a handover ceremony Friday, now free of the responsibility of command, it seems he felt moved to say what was really on his mind. Even then he said the alliance will face difficulties, when in fact it has been strained for the past three years and is now close to breaking point.

Some government officials who value the alliance, unaware of the fact that times have changed, were bitterly attacked when the new government veered toward anti-American sentiment and self-reliance. We now know that some in the National Security Council and ruling Uri Party are in cahoots to stir up trouble by disclosing sensitive information about the relationship.

America, I believe, is obviously getting a lot less out of their commitment than the South Koreans. My policy recommendation for the region is that each time South Korea abstains from a UN vote against the North, issues an anti-American statement, or becomes more conciliatory to the North, we re-deploy 1,000 troops to a more useful location. After this happens a few times, we’ll see how serious the South really is about “sunshine” policies.

I found that link at VodkaPundit who also linked to a post of his from 2003 in which he argued that reunification of the Korea’s will be much more difficult than the German reunification.

Unified Korea isn’t going to be a threat to anyone. Who are they going to invade? Japan? China? Russia? Hardly. Korea is the Poland of Northeast Asia — a small nation trapped between bigger, and often antagonistic, neighbors. No, a single Korea would likely have a smaller (although still very potent) military than does just South Korea today.

So what’s the problem?

Let’s go back to 1989 once more. West Germany had 62 million people, and the world’s third-largest economy. East Germans numbered a mere 17 million, and by Communist standards, they were quite rich. In fact, the old DDR was the richest Communist nation ever, period, full stop. So while reunification was an expensive proposition, West Germany could afford it without too much pain. Also, East Germans had been under the Communist yoke for “only” 45 years. There were still people alive with some memory of how a civil society functions. Easing matters, East Germans could often watch Western TV, and many were allowed limited travel to the west.

South Korea has fewer than 50 million people, and while they’ve made great strides, their per capita income is still only up to that of modern Poland. They aren’t poor, but they aren’t nearly as rich as West Germany was. In addition, their economy isn’t as mature or robust, as the Asian Financial Crisis of a couple years back showed.

Up north are 22 million of their starving brethren. Before the Communist dictatorship, they lived a brutal existence as virtual slaves of Japan. “Chosen,” as Tokyo called Korea, was annexed by the Japanese Empire 93 years ago. It’s safe to say that there is no one in North Korea with any experience living in a politically modern, free, democratic, or tolerant state. Travel is forbidden. Only a small handful of South Koreans are allowed north. There is only one radio station, and it runs nothing but the foulest sort of propaganda. And according to a story in US News & World Report a few weeks ago, North Korea even has concentration camps bigger than the District of Columbia.

Through no fault of their own, the people of North Korea simply aren’t ready to enter the modern world, and South Korea can’t afford to feed, house, re-educate, and re-civilize them all.

Whether or not there’s a war, when North Korea collapses there’s going to be a humanitarian crisis on a scale the world has never seen — 22 million scared, hungry, and desperate people left without any semblance of anything familiar.

And whether or not there’s a war, the United States is going to have to spend an awful lot of treasure and troops to help set things right.

Anyway, it’s an interesting situation and I think the Korean elections in 2007 will provide some clear insights on the future of the ROK-US alliance.