…everybody has one.
This guy speculates on what war would like should things take a worse turn here on the Korean peninsula.
A North Korean Attack: Though war would be catastrophic for both countries, South Korea would suffer the most in the first days of a full-scale conflict. Its capital of Seoul lies just 50 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) — as big a misnomer as you will find, since the area is one of the most heavily militarized areas on the planet. On this de facto border, North Korea has amassed about 13,000 artillery pieces, rockets, missiles and other ordnance that can reach Seoul in a matter of minutes. Seoul, a city of 1 million, could be flattened; also at risk are the 28,500 American troops stationed in the country. Additionally, North Korea could release its dams and flood much of the South, writes Christopher Hitchens. There’s also its 1.2 million-member army to consider. And were North Korea to deploy nuclear and chemical weapons, the devastation would be much much worse.
Is he wrong? Well, the fact that he says Seoul has a population of 1 million doesn’t inspire much confidence. I have probably a million people living in my neighborhood (Seoul has well over 10 million citizens). Now, Kim Jung-il could certainly rain some fire, death, and destruction down on our heads, but there ain’t no way he could flatten the city (unless his nukes are a lot bigger than what he’s tested thus far).
Still, it wouldn’t be pretty, that’s for sure. It would also be an act of suicide for Mr. Kim and his regime. I am of the opinion that Kim may be a maniac, but he’s not stupid. The big wildcard in all of this will be where China comes down. I haven’t seen many positive signs in that regard, but I can’t believe having the North initiate a war would be in China’s interests. And the Chinese are cold, hard calculators who will likely protect their interests by prevailing on the North to back down.
But that’s just one navel gazer’s opinion…
UPDATE: Here’s another opinion perhaps more worthy of consideration.